Serie A Game State Analysis 0-1 at 20 minutes

We continue our series with a look at the Italian Serie A. Once again we are looking at the Game State when 20 minutes have expired and it is 0-1 to the away side.

The first thing to notice is as with the English Premier League & Championship there is not much fight back from the home side barring the Top 5 established sides.

Indeed if we remove Juve, Napoli, Roma, Lazio & Inter then only 24 of 176 (13.64%) matches have seen the home side win.

Interestingly since the 2011/12 season only 20 of the recorded 227 matches saw no further goals. Indeed we can take this further and when the away side have scored the opening goal in the first 20 mins. Only 1 of the last 66 have ended 0-1

Also of note of all the leagues recorded so far this has the highest percentage of games finishing with Over 3.5 goals with 101 of 227 (44.5%) of the games containing 4 or more goals.

What also catches the eye is that 119 of the 227 matches contained 2 or more goals in the first half.

Indeed I took this a little further and looking at the table below I have looked at the number of times the First half contained 2 or more goals when the away team scored in the first 20 minutes. It should be noted that in this scenario it included all scorelines at 20 minutes and not just 0-1 to the away side.

Here 177 of 285 matches (62%) contained 2 or more 1st half goals.

There were 2 outliers here. Only 4 of Cagliari’s 13 matches contained over 1.5 goals in the 1st half as did only 5 of Lazio’s last 13. Indeed if we remove these 2 sides then 65% of Serie A matches since 2011/12 when seeing an opening away goal being scored in the first 20 minutes have contained 2 or more goals.

Looking at last season in the same scenario the 73% of the matches saw over 1.5 goals in the first half

Further interesting stats When AC Milan have been losing in the San Siro 0-1 at 20 minutes they have only won 1 of their last 13 matches. Here they would have almost certainlky be trading at around 5/2.

This leaves us with some very good trading scenarios. There is no doubt that the Serie A is certainly a little more free scoring these days.

However there are always those matches where the bookmakers model expects fewer goals. The beauty of this is that when the early away goal is scored the bookmakers still expect the game to be low scoring, when the reality is that the early away goal generally increases goal production.

Here I would look to back either Over 3.5 goals to trade when the away side take the early lead in a game with low pre match goal expectation or to back Over 1.5 goals in the first half as a straight bet when the odds are in your favour 1.80 or above.

Game State Analysis Table early Away goal in the first  20 Minutes looking at Over 1.5 goals in the 1st Half

Team Matches W % Odds
Juventus 6 4 66.67 1.50
Napoli 18 9 50.00 2.00
Lazio 13 5 38.46 2.60
Roma 10 7 70.00 1.43
Inter 21 17 80.95 1.24
Sassuolo 19 12 63.16 1.58
Torino 10 5 50.00 2.00
Udinese 20 14 70.00 1.43
Atalanta 15 9 60.00 1.67
Genoa 21 14 66.67 1.50
Cagliari 13 4 30.77 3.25
Milan 15 7 46.67 2.14
Sampdoria 20 12 60.00 1.67
Fiorentina 12 7 58.33 1.71
Palermo 14 10 71.43 1.40
Bologna 12 8 66.67 1.50
Empoli 10 9 90.00 1.11
Chievo 19 11 57.89 1.73
Pescara 15 11 73.33 1.36
Crotone 2 2 100.00 1.00
Total 285 177
Percentage   62.11
Odds 1.61

 

Game State Analysis Table 0-1 on 20 Minutes

SN = Scored Next

CN = Conceded Next

NG = No Further Goals

BS = Both Teams Scored

Team Matches W D L PPG SN CN NG BS O2.5 O3.5 HT O1.5
Juventus 4 2 2 0 2.00 4 0 0 4 2 2 2
Napoli 12 5 5 2 1.67 10 2 0 12 8 7 3
Lazio 13 5 2 6 1.31 6 6 1 9 7 6 5
Roma 7 2 2 3 1.14 7 0 0 7 5 3 4
Inter 15 4 5 6 1.13 11 4 0 14 9 9 11
Sassuolo 16 4 4 8 1.00 9 6 1 9 10 4 9
Torino 8 2 2 4 1.00 5 2 1 5 4 4 3
Udinese 16 4 3 9 0.94 7 6 3 12 11 8 10
Atalanta 10 2 3 5 0.90 6 2 2 7 5 2 4
Genoa 16 2 7 7 0.81 9 6 1 13 8 6 9
Cagliari 10 2 1 7 0.70 2 7 1 5 6 2 1
Milan 13 1 6 6 0.69 5 7 1 11 10 8 5
Sampdoria 16 3 2 11 0.69 5 10 1 9 7 7 8
Fiorentina 11 1 4 6 0.64 3 7 1 8 9 6 6
Palermo 10 1 2 7 0.50 5 4 1 7 6 5 6
Bologna 9 1 1 7 0.44 4 5 0 4 4 3 5
Empoli 8 0 3 5 0.38 7 1 0 8 7 5 7
Chievo 18 1 3 14 0.33 5 9 4 9 9 6 10
Pescara 13 0 1 12 0.08 2 9 2 6 9 7 9
Crotone 2 0 0 2 0.00 0 2 0 2 2 1 2
Total 227 42 58 127   112 95 20 161 138 101 119
Percentage   18.50 25.55 55.95   49.34 41.85 8.81 70.93 60.79 44.49 52.42
Odds 5.40 3.91 1.79   2.03 2.39 11.35 1.41 1.64 2.25 1.91