MLS Game State Analysis 0-1 at 20 minutes
With the MLS starting this weekend I thought I would have a look at the stats where the away side take the lead and are 0-1 up after 20 minutes.
Here the data goes back to the 2012 season, and please note this is REGULAR SEASON ONLY and does not include the Play offs
The first thing that stands out is there certainly looks to be more fightback from the home side when comparing the stats to the English Premier League.
In the MLS the home side average 1.23 points per game when losing 0-1 after 20 minutes, compared to the English Premier League which averages 0.81 points per game.
As we saw in the Premier League in 208 matches the home team scored next in just 98 matches (47.11%). Where as in the MLS the home team scored the next goal in 121 of the 210 matches which equates to 57.61% of the matches.
Interestingly when we look at the teams that have recorded 1 point or more per game, they recorded the next goal in 87 of 137 matches (63.50%)
Also of note when looking at the 7 sides that recorded less than 1 point per game in the 73 matches ONLY 13 ended up level (17.80%)
When looking at the Top 6 sides in the table below they have lost only 11 (19.64%) of 56 matches.
Other stats of note, when Toronto have conceded the opening goal and are 0-1 after 20 minutes, in 21 games there has always been another goal scored.
So in conclusion unlike the Premier League if the home side concede the opening goal and are 0-1 after 20 minutes you should expect some sort of fightback, however the likelihood of the game ending a draw is lowered and the way to exploit this would be to lay the draw as time decays.
I have noted that in games in this profile that remain 0-1 at half time added to the home fightback between the 46th and 70th minute, there will be high expectation that the game will have further goals and this will lower expectation of the draw as a result.
In summary the early away goal in the MLS will lower the expectation of the draw.
Of 121 games that followed the pathway to 1-1 only 22 (18.18%) ended a draw.
Game State Analysis Table 0-1 on 20 Minutes
SN = Scored Next
CN = Conceded Next
NG = No Further Goals
BS = Both Teams Scored