Championship Game State Analysis 0-1 at 20 minutes
Continuing our series I have now taken a look at the Championship when the home side have conceded a goal between 0-20 minutes and the score at 20 minutes is 0-1
When comparing this to the Premier League and the MLS there are a number of interestring factors to consider.
Firstly I would not be expercting a goal rush. If we look aty the Premier League and MLS over 3.5 goals was seen in 44% and 43% of the matches respectively. However, in the Championship this has only been seen in 34% of the matches.
Also to be noted that in less than 50% of the matches the home side scored next.
Another significant trend is that 27% of the matches finished level. This is quite a difference from 22% in both the Premier League & MLS
When looking at the First half there are 4 sides that have recorded double figures on matches that recorded 2 goals in the first half. These are Ipswich with 13 from 22. Nottingham Forest with 18 from 25. Sheffield Wednesday with 13 from 18 and Huddersfield with 14 from 22.
If we remove these 4 sides then 2 or more goals in the first half has been seen in just under 43% of matches.
With Both teams scoring in 73% of the matches then after the 20 minute mark the stats suggest that the most probable outcome is either a 1-1 or 1-2 score line.
Also if seeing an early away goal and the score is 0-1 after 20 minutes it may be worth trading the unders goal line. Alternately you can dutch the 0-1, 1-1 & 1-2 scorelines.
In conclusion the reason why we see a draw bias in the Championship when 0-1 after 20 minutes is because the stats are showing that there is a lowered expectation of the away team winning the 2nd half. So 1-1 is far more likely than 0-2.
Game State Analysis Table 0-1 on 20 Minutes
SN = Scored Next
CN = Conceded Next
NG = No Further Goals
BS = Both Teams Scored